The table below shows the 8 parameters for which CRISIL has forecasted India's figures for 2008-2009.
Quite frankly, I find a few of these numbers too optimistic and a few reasons cited in the report by CRISIL too vague. Its highly unlikely that India's overall GDP growth will hit more than 6.5%. In fact it might be as low as 6%. I would be too optimistic if I say that the year end Rs/$ exchange rate would stand at Rs 45. Chances are that this figure might hover around Rs 48 after hitting a high of Rs 52. Moreover the country's fiscal deficit would see a slight relief due to lower oil prices globally and for India, its oil imports eat into most of what its Balance of Payment shows in the form of inflows.
My major concern apart from all these this year are the FII outflows which I think will accelerate post the Mumbai Terror Attack. If Nifty does test lows of 1800 then it will test a lot of patience for many Domestic Institutional Buyers who have been trying to buffer the damage done by the FIIs. My take on IT/ITES, Realty and Auto this year is bearish and the year 2009 according to me will see markets being range bound. I personally see no mouth watering returns from the Indian stock markets during the year 2009 though I pray and hope that by 2012 Sensex hits 25000 (We all want that....Don't We??)
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