The graph below shows the trench between the Standard Deviation of the opening price of ICICI stock on 8th of every month and the closing price for the 10th of next month for 16 such successive periods. If the fall in the ICICI stock between 8th September, 2008 and 10th October 2008 was indeed abnormal, then the trench for that period (T2: at -13.03) should be the largest, but the graph shows that the deepest trench between the SDs was in the period T7, sometime close to January 2008. The numbers and data suggest that the SD seen in the ICICI stock prices and the trenches are not abnormal during the current year and have in fact been lesser that previous monthly averages. Thus the idea of rumors causing its stock to sink by 50% does not quite seem logical to me. But then again, this is purely based on the movement in stock prices.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
ICICI Stock Price: A Quantitative Aspect
The graph below shows the trench between the Standard Deviation of the opening price of ICICI stock on 8th of every month and the closing price for the 10th of next month for 16 such successive periods. If the fall in the ICICI stock between 8th September, 2008 and 10th October 2008 was indeed abnormal, then the trench for that period (T2: at -13.03) should be the largest, but the graph shows that the deepest trench between the SDs was in the period T7, sometime close to January 2008. The numbers and data suggest that the SD seen in the ICICI stock prices and the trenches are not abnormal during the current year and have in fact been lesser that previous monthly averages. Thus the idea of rumors causing its stock to sink by 50% does not quite seem logical to me. But then again, this is purely based on the movement in stock prices.
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