As per data by Global Insight, prospects for India by 2012,will not be as accelerated as people have assumed them to be. India's industrial production growth is expected to decrease by 7.5% from current levels and imports will increase 2.4 times. On the bright side, exports will grow at a faster pace of 2.6% but the country will still run a trade deficit of US$106 billion.
What might come as a shock to most visionaries is that India's GDP in 2012 is expected to grow at 8.1% and NOT above the 9% mark. In fact the data shows that till 2012 India wont hit the 9% mark even for a single year.
What might come as a shock to most visionaries is that India's GDP in 2012 is expected to grow at 8.1% and NOT above the 9% mark. In fact the data shows that till 2012 India wont hit the 9% mark even for a single year. But this is good news. The country has accelerated too much too soon since 1996 in terms of GDP growth. This indicates that India is looking towards a future that will be built on sustained growth and not steroids.
2 comments:
Rahul,
I think sustained growth is always better than a temporary jump. You also mentioned that the productions will decrease, right.
Can you comment that will this fall in production industry prove to be a bane for all the people? How will it affect Inflation ?
Hii Deep,
The long term target for inflation set by RBI is less than 3% but this doesnot look feasable based on estimated supply/demand situation. As per the data available with me by Global Insight the WPI will hover around 4.6% in 2012. This would correspondingly bring interest rates down and reduce inflation. This would also be on the back on stable sustained growth which is the best means of curbing inflation.
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